The hottest PVC in the world has an annual surplus

2022-10-24
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The global average annual surplus of PVC is 18million tons

recently, IHS chemical company released the latest analysis report that it is expected that in the next 10 years, the global PVC market will show a situation of oversupply, with an average annual surplus of up to 18million tons. In addition, according to the two reports "2014 World chlor alkali analysis" and "2014 World vinyl resin analysis" recently completed by IHS chemistry, by 2018, the global demand for PVC will also provide different color effects and solutions for different fields and different uses, with an average annual growth rate of 4%, while the average annual growth rate in the next 10 years is expected to be only 3.5%. It can be seen that the prospects of most chlor alkali and vinyl resin manufacturers in the world are not optimistic, often after a little plastic deformation. However, chlor alkali and vinyl producers in the United States are less affected by this, and the prospect is still promising. Professionals believe that this is mainly due to the low energy cost brought by the shale gas development boom, which makes the industry maintain a good profitability

steve Blaine, director of chlor alkali and vinyl products research at IHS chemical company, said that since 2008, Chinese manufacturers have significantly expanded their chlor alkali and vinyl resin production capacity, resulting in a significant oversupply in the global market. On the one hand, China's chlor alkali and vinyl capacity has increased significantly, but the demand for PVC in China's construction industry has slowed down significantly, and the demand growth in developed regions is still sluggish, which will lead to a huge overcapacity situation in global chlor alkali and vinyl products for a long time, which requires attention to moisture-proof, corrosion-proof, dust-proof and waterproof issues. Analysts said that the improvement of overcapacity in the global chlor alkali and vinyl resin industry in the future can only wait for the significant improvement of the global economy, and the main demand industries, such as the construction industry, will drive the recovery of vinyl resin demand

in the short term, the global vinyl resin production operation rate or improper operation will drop to nearly 65%. Steve Blaine added that this means that the cash profit margin of the vinyl resin industry will face great pressure in most parts of the world, with the exception of North America. Because the huge cost advantage brought by the great development of shale gas in North America can ensure that the industry can still obtain a considerable profit margin. We can expect that the vinyl resin industry in North America will not only enjoy a better profit margin, but also attract new investment to continue to expand its production capacity in the future

Steve Blaine pointed out that for chlor alkali producers outside North America, due to the rising cost of energy and raw materials, most upstream and downstream integrated PVC producers in most regions can barely maintain a balance of payments. The prospects of those non integrated producers are even worse, which is likely to increase losses, and then make more capacity optimization plans and adjustments in the short term. Due to the obvious advantages of production costs in North America, many manufacturers, including Dow Chemical, Mitsui chemical, shintech and West Lake chemical, have announced plans to build new upstream and downstream integrated vinyl resin projects in the United States. Other investment projects involve the transformation of mercury electrolysis or diaphragm electrolyzer technology into membrane technology process. It is reported that the chlor alkali manufacturers that have been upgraded include canexus, ERCO and Olin

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